Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torreperogil vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torreperogil
Torreperogil
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
12/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Torreperogil29%
×Draw29%
Juventud Torremolinos41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreperogil
0.95
Juventud Torremolinos
1.19

Juventud Torremolinos creates 25% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 45 away

creates per match

Torreperogil
1.08
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

Torreperogil
0.85
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw
59%
Torreperogil or Juventud Torremolinos
71%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
71%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+
10%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals
61%
Torreperogil 2+ goals
25%
Torreperogil 3+ goals
7%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
70%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
33%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)
41%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torreperogil scores more
29%
level
29%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
41%

Juventud Torremolinos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torreperogil vs Juventud Torremolinos

Torreperogil beat Juventud Torremolinos 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas in Torreperogil.