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Juventud Torremolinos vs Torreperogil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torreperogil
Torreperogil
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos57%
×Draw25%
Torreperogil18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.58
Torreperogil
0.77

Juventud Torremolinos creates 105% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 109 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
Torreperogil
0.87

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
Torreperogil
1.53

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Torreperogil+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Torreperogil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
82%
Juventud Torremolinos or Torreperogil
75%
Draw or Torreperogil
43%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
30%
Torreperogil wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
79%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
47%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
21%
Torreperogil 1+ goals
54%
Torreperogil 2+ goals
18%
Torreperogil 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
76%
Torreperogil (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Torreperogil away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Torreperogil defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Torreperogil attack 0.87 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
57%
level
25%
Torreperogil scores more
18%

Juventud Torremolinos at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventud Torremolinos vs Torreperogil

Juventud Torremolinos and Torreperogil drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.