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Torrent vs Rayo Ibense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Torrent
Torrent
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Rayo Ibense
Rayo Ibense
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 22Estadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Torrent56%
×Draw26%
Rayo Ibense18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrent
1.54
Rayo Ibense
0.75

Torrent creates 105% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 49 away

creates per match

Torrent
1.36
Rayo Ibense
0.63

allows per match

Torrent
0.87
Rayo Ibense
1.73

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par
Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Rayo Ibense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torrent or draw
82%
Torrent or Rayo Ibense
74%
Draw or Rayo Ibense
44%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+
30%
Rayo Ibense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals
79%
Torrent 2+ goals
45%
Torrent 3+ goals
20%
Rayo Ibense 1+ goals
53%
Rayo Ibense 2+ goals
17%
Rayo Ibense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)
76%
Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Rayo Ibense away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.36 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rayo Ibense attack 0.63 + Torrent defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Torrent scores more
56%
level
26%
Rayo Ibense scores more
18%

Torrent at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torrent vs Rayo Ibense

Torrent beat Rayo Ibense 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Gregorio in Torrent.