Rayo Ibense 1–1 Torrent: Result & Stats

Rayo Ibense

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Torrent

Kevin Sánchez 23' (pen)

Juanca Alarcón 35'

10/22/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 7Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Rayo Ibense35%

×Draw29%

Torrent37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo IbenseExpected goals in this matchTorrent

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.14

Rayo Ibense

1.10

Torrent

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 47 away

1.10

creates per match

0.98

1.29

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Rayo Ibense

1.10

Torrent

0.98

allows per match

Rayo Ibense

1.29

Torrent

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Torrent+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Ibense ↓

Torrent →

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rayo Ibense or draw

63%

Rayo Ibense or Torrent

71%

Draw or Torrent

65%

Winning margin

Rayo Ibense wins by 2+

14%

Torrent wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rayo Ibense 1+ goals

67%

Rayo Ibense 2+ goals

30%

Rayo Ibense 3+ goals

10%

Torrent 1+ goals

68%

Torrent 2+ goals

32%

Torrent 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)

49%

Torrent (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Ibense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Torrent away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.09 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Ibense attack 1.10 + Torrent defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Torrent attack 0.98 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rayo Ibense scores more

35%

level

29%

Torrent scores more

37%

Torrent at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Kevin SánchezPenalty

35'

Juanca Alarcón

55'

Víctor Baeza← Antonio Gálvez

61'

M. Farisato← Luis García

70'

Miguel Arilla← Juanca Alarcón

75'

B. Murillo← Domingo

79'

Roberto Laurel← Miguel Nemesio

79'

Kliti Valisi← M. Farisato

83'

Francisco Santoyo← Kevin Sánchez

83'

Alexis López← Adrián Banderas

Rayo

Torrent

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Alarcón

Rico

Devesa

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Dani Pina

55'▲Víctor Baeza←▼Antonio Gálvez

75'▲B. Murillo←▼Domingo

83'▲Francisco Santoyo←▼Kevin Sánchez

83'▲Alexis López←▼Adrián Banderas

Rayo Ibense substitutes

BaezaMurilloSantoyoLópez

Manager: Alejandro Esteve

61'▲M. Farisato←▼Luis García

70'▲Miguel Arilla←▼Juanca Alarcón

79'▲Roberto Laurel←▼Miguel Nemesio

79'▲Kliti Valisi←▼M. Farisato

Torrent substitutes

FarisatoArillaLaurelValisi

Match Recap: Rayo Ibense vs Torrent

Rayo Ibense and Torrent drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 22, 2022.

Goals: Kevin Sánchez (23' pen), Juanca Alarcón (35').

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel in Alicante.

Rayo Ibense vs Torrent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rayo Ibense vs Torrent