Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torrent vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Torrent
Torrent
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jove Español
Jove Español
12/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 15Estadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Torrent46%
×Draw29%
Jove Español25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrent
1.29
Jove Español
0.86

Torrent creates 50% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 110 away

creates per match

Torrent
1.36
Jove Español
0.86

allows per match

Torrent
0.87
Jove Español
1.21

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par
Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Jove Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Torrent or draw
75%
Torrent or Jove Español
71%
Draw or Jove Español
54%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+
21%
Jove Español wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals
72%
Torrent 2+ goals
37%
Torrent 3+ goals
14%
Jove Español 1+ goals
58%
Jove Español 2+ goals
21%
Jove Español 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)
65%
Jove Español (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.36 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Torrent defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torrent scores more
46%
level
29%
Jove Español scores more
25%

Torrent at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torrent vs Jove Español

Torrent beat Jove Español 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Gregorio in Torrent.