Jove Español 2–1 Torrent: Result & Stats

Jove Español

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Torrent

Pablo Morgado 86'

Ángel Pérez 76'

Jorge Juliá 19' (pen)

4/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 34Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Jove Español39%

×Draw30%

Torrent31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jove EspañolExpected goals in this matchTorrent

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.96

Jove Español

1.10

Torrent

0.96

Jove Español creates 15% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 47 away

1.10

creates per match

0.98

0.94

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Jove Español

1.10

Torrent

0.98

allows per match

Jove Español

0.94

Torrent

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par

Torrent+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Torrent →

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw

69%

Jove Español or Torrent

70%

Draw or Torrent

61%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+

16%

Torrent wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals

67%

Jove Español 2+ goals

30%

Jove Español 3+ goals

10%

Torrent 1+ goals

62%

Torrent 2+ goals

25%

Torrent 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)

55%

Torrent (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 110 matches

Torrent away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.09 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 1.10 + Torrent defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Torrent attack 0.98 + Jove Español defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jove Español scores more

39%

level

30%

Torrent scores more

31%

Jove Español at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Jorge JuliáPenalty

46'

Cristian Ripoll← Víctor Banegas

62'

Marcos Blasco← Monty

70'

Óscar Amat← Fede Romero

70'

Ángel Pérez← Kike Tortosa

70'

José Campos← Abraham Gomis

70'

Germán Blay← Christian Albert

76'

Moisés Eboko← S. Ekedi

76'

Pedro Moreno← Adrián Lois

76'

Ángel Pérez

77'

Pablo Morgado← Luis Ortiz

86'

Pablo Morgado

Jove

Torrent

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jaime Pérez

46'▲Cristian Ripoll←▼Víctor Banegas

70'▲Óscar Amat←▼Fede Romero

70'▲Ángel Pérez←▼Kike Tortosa

70'▲José Campos←▼Abraham Gomis

77'▲Pablo Morgado←▼Luis Ortiz

Jove Español substitutes

RipollAmatPérezCamposMorgado

Manager: Toni Jareño

62'▲Marcos Blasco←▼Monty

70'▲Germán Blay←▼Christian Albert

76'▲Moisés Eboko←▼S. Ekedi

76'▲Pedro Moreno←▼Adrián Lois

Torrent substitutes

BlascoBlayEbokoMoreno

Match Recap: Jove Español vs Torrent

Jove Español beat Torrent 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 9, 2022.

Goals: Jorge Juliá (19' pen), Ángel Pérez (76'), Pablo Morgado (86').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig in San Vicente del Raspeig.

Jove Español vs Torrent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jove Español vs Torrent