Torrent 1–0 Elche II: Result & Stats

Torrent

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Elche II

Javi Zarzo 11'

2/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 20Estadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Torrent39%

×Draw29%

Elche II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrentExpected goals in this matchElche II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.06

Torrent

1.19

Elche II

1.06

Torrent creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 77 away

1.36

creates per match

1.25

0.87

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Torrent

1.36

Elche II

1.25

allows per match

Torrent

0.87

Elche II

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par

Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Elche II →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Torrent or draw

68%

Torrent or Elche II

71%

Draw or Elche II

61%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+

17%

Elche II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals

70%

Torrent 2+ goals

33%

Torrent 3+ goals

12%

Elche II 1+ goals

65%

Elche II 2+ goals

29%

Elche II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)

55%

Elche II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.36 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Elche II attack 1.25 + Torrent defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torrent scores more

39%

level

29%

Elche II scores more

32%

Torrent at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Javi Zarzo

46'

Marcos Blasco← Y. Kharbouch

46'

Avelino← Higuera

46'

Fran Gil← Adrián González

60'

Roberto Laurel← Cuxart

71'

Izan Llinares← Llario

76'

Rodrigo Mendoza← Iker Carbonell

84'

Luis García← Javi Zarzo

Torrent

Elche

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Vicente Mir

46'▲Marcos Blasco←▼Y. Kharbouch

60'▲Roberto Laurel←▼Cuxart

71'▲Izan Llinares←▼Llario

84'▲Luis García←▼Javi Zarzo

Torrent substitutes

BlascoLaurelLlinaresGarcía

Manager: Carlos Geraldo

46'▲Avelino←▼Higuera

46'▲Fran Gil←▼Adrián González

76'▲Rodrigo Mendoza←▼Iker Carbonell

Elche II substitutes

AvelinoGilMendoza

Match Recap: Torrent vs Elche II

Torrent beat Elche II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 12, 2023.

Goals: Javi Zarzo (11').

The match was played at Estadio San Gregorio in Torrent.

Torrent vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torrent vs Elche II