Torrent 2–2 Elche II: Result & Stats

Torrent

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Elche II

Jorge Juliá 81' (pen)

S. Ekedi 11'

Diego Bri 73', 57'

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 37Estadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Torrent39%

×Draw29%

Elche II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrentExpected goals in this matchElche II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.06

Torrent

1.19

Elche II

1.06

Torrent creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 77 away

1.36

creates per match

1.25

0.87

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Torrent

1.36

Elche II

1.25

allows per match

Torrent

0.87

Elche II

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par

Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Elche II →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Torrent or draw

68%

Torrent or Elche II

71%

Draw or Elche II

61%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+

17%

Elche II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals

70%

Torrent 2+ goals

33%

Torrent 3+ goals

12%

Elche II 1+ goals

65%

Elche II 2+ goals

29%

Elche II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)

55%

Elche II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.36 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Elche II attack 1.25 + Torrent defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torrent scores more

39%

level

29%

Elche II scores more

32%

Torrent at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

S. Ekedi

34'

Ayán← B. Knežević

57'

Diego Bri

64'

Y. Kharbouch← S. Ekedi

64'

Christian Albert← Monty

73'

Diego Bri

76'

Miguel Maestro← Adrián Domínguez

76'

Marcos Blasco← Adrián Gomis

77'

Youssef El Ghzaoui← Víctor Blanco

77'

José Ruiz← Pablo Serafín

81'

Jorge JuliáPenalty

88'

Álvaro Escobar← Ivi

88'

Cheikh Diamanka← Ayán

88'

Lilian← Alejandro Pérez

Torrent

Elche

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ekedi

Manager: Toni Jareño

64'▲Y. Kharbouch←▼S. Ekedi

64'▲Christian Albert←▼Monty

76'▲Miguel Maestro←▼Adrián Domínguez

76'▲Marcos Blasco←▼Adrián Gomis

88'▲Álvaro Escobar←▼Ivi

Torrent substitutes

KharbouchAlbertMaestroBlascoEscobar

Manager: René

34'▲Ayán←▼B. Knežević

77'▲Youssef El Ghzaoui←▼Víctor Blanco

77'▲José Ruiz←▼Pablo Serafín

88'▲Cheikh Diamanka←▼Ayán

88'▲Lilian←▼Alejandro Pérez

Elche II substitutes

AyánGhzaouiRuizDiamankaLilian

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Torrent 2–2 Elche II

Torrent and Elche II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 24, 2022.

Goals: S. Ekedi (11'), Diego Bri (57', 73'), Jorge Juliá (81' pen).

The match was played at Estadio San Gregorio in Torrent.

Torrent vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Torrent 2–2 Elche II