Torrellano 3–2 Soneja: Result & Stats

Torrellano

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Soneja

4/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 29Polideportivo Isabel Fernández

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Torrellano44%

×Draw27%

Soneja29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrellanoExpected goals in this matchSoneja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.03

Torrellano

1.34

Soneja

1.03

Torrellano creates 30% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

1.31

creates per match

1.02

1.04

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Torrellano

1.31

Soneja

1.02

allows per match

Torrellano

1.04

Soneja

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrellano+0.00on par

Soneja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrellano ↓

Soneja →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torrellano or draw

71%

Torrellano or Soneja

73%

Draw or Soneja

56%

Winning margin

Torrellano wins by 2+

20%

Soneja wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Torrellano 1+ goals

74%

Torrellano 2+ goals

39%

Torrellano 3+ goals

15%

Soneja 1+ goals

64%

Soneja 2+ goals

28%

Soneja 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrellano (draw refunded)

60%

Soneja (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrellano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 84 matches

Soneja away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrellano attack 1.31 + Soneja defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Soneja attack 1.02 + Torrellano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torrellano scores more

44%

level

27%

Soneja scores more

29%

Torrellano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torrellano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff