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Soneja vs Torrellano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Soneja
Soneja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Torrellano
Torrellano
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 3Camp El Arco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Soneja42%
×Draw30%
Torrellano28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soneja
1.18
Torrellano
0.90

Soneja creates 31% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 84 away

creates per match

Soneja
1.12
Torrellano
0.77

allows per match

Soneja
1.02
Torrellano
1.23

finishing

Soneja+0.00on par
Torrellano+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soneja ↓

Torrellano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Soneja or draw
72%
Soneja or Torrellano
70%
Draw or Torrellano
58%

Winning margin

Soneja wins by 2+
18%
Torrellano wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Soneja 1+ goals
69%
Soneja 2+ goals
33%
Soneja 3+ goals
12%
Torrellano 1+ goals
59%
Torrellano 2+ goals
23%
Torrellano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Soneja (draw refunded)
60%
Torrellano (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soneja at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Torrellano away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soneja attack 1.12 + Torrellano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Torrellano attack 0.77 + Soneja defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Soneja scores more
42%
level
30%
Torrellano scores more
28%

Soneja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Soneja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Soneja 1–1 Torrellano

Soneja and Torrellano drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Camp El Arco in Soneja.