Torrejón 0–0 Real Madrid III: Result & Stats

Torrejón

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid III

11/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 12Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torrejón34%

×Draw29%

Real Madrid III37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrejónExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.14

Torrejón

1.09

Real Madrid III

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 17 away

1.43

creates per match

1.35

0.93

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Torrejón

1.43

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

Torrejón

0.93

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw

63%

Torrejón or Real Madrid III

71%

Draw or Real Madrid III

66%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+

14%

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals

66%

Torrejón 2+ goals

30%

Torrejón 3+ goals

10%

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

68%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

32%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)

48%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.09

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Torrejón scores more

34%

level

29%

Real Madrid III scores more

37%

Real Madrid III at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torrejón vs Real Madrid III

Torrejón and Real Madrid III drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.

Torrejón vs Real Madrid III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torrejón vs Real Madrid III