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Real Madrid III vs Torrejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Madrid III
Real Madrid III
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Torrejón
Torrejón
4/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid III64%
×Draw21%
Torrejón15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid III
1.90
Torrejón
0.77

Real Madrid III creates 147% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 115 away

creates per match

Real Madrid III
2.29
Torrejón
1.25

allows per match

Real Madrid III
0.29
Torrejón
1.50

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par
Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

Torrejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw
85%
Real Madrid III or Torrejón
79%
Draw or Torrejón
36%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+
38%
Torrejón wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals
85%
Real Madrid III 2+ goals
56%
Real Madrid III 3+ goals
29%
Torrejón 1+ goals
54%
Torrejón 2+ goals
18%
Torrejón 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)
82%
Torrejón (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 2.29 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Torrejón attack 1.25 + Real Madrid III defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Real Madrid III scores more
64%
level
21%
Torrejón scores more
15%

Real Madrid III at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid III vs Torrejón

Real Madrid III beat Torrejón 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7 in Madrid.