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Torreense vs Tondela — Taça de Portugal 2018

Torreense
Torreense
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tondela
Tondela
11/26/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundCampo Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Torreense50%
×Draw24%
Tondela26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreense
1.75
Tondela
1.19

Torreense creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Torreense
2.00
Tondela
1.50

allows per match

Torreense
0.88
Tondela
1.50

finishing

Torreense+0.00on par
Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense ↓

Tondela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Torreense or draw
74%
Torreense or Tondela
76%
Draw or Tondela
50%

Winning margin

Torreense wins by 2+
27%
Tondela wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torreense 1+ goals
83%
Torreense 2+ goals
52%
Torreense 3+ goals
25%
Tondela 1+ goals
70%
Tondela 2+ goals
33%
Tondela 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Torreense (draw refunded)
66%
Tondela (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense attack 2.00 + Tondela defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tondela attack 1.50 + Torreense defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Torreense scores more
50%
level
24%
Tondela scores more
26%

Torreense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torreense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torreense vs Tondela

Torreense and Tondela drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras.