Tondela 1–2 Torreense: Result & Stats

Tondela

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Torreense

11/5/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 9Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tondela39%

×Draw28%

Torreense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TondelaExpected goals in this matchTorreense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.15

Tondela

1.25

Torreense

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

1.33

creates per match

1.15

1.16

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Tondela

1.33

Torreense

1.15

allows per match

Tondela

1.16

Torreense

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par

Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Torreense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tondela or draw

66%

Tondela or Torreense

72%

Draw or Torreense

61%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+

17%

Torreense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals

71%

Tondela 2+ goals

36%

Tondela 3+ goals

13%

Torreense 1+ goals

68%

Torreense 2+ goals

32%

Torreense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)

53%

Torreense (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.33 + Torreense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Torreense attack 1.15 + Tondela defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tondela scores more

39%

level

28%

Torreense scores more

34%

Tondela at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff