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Torreense vs Pacos Ferreira — Segunda Liga 2018

Torreense
Torreense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
9/14/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 5Campo Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Torreense42%
×Draw28%
Pacos Ferreira30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreense
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.04

Torreense creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Torreense
1.40
Pacos Ferreira
1.00

allows per match

Torreense
1.09
Pacos Ferreira
1.19

finishing

Torreense+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torreense or draw
70%
Torreense or Pacos Ferreira
72%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
58%

Winning margin

Torreense wins by 2+
19%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Torreense 1+ goals
72%
Torreense 2+ goals
37%
Torreense 3+ goals
14%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
65%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
28%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torreense (draw refunded)
58%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense attack 1.40 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.00 + Torreense defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torreense scores more
42%
level
28%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
30%

Torreense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torreense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torreense vs Pacos Ferreira

Torreense and Pacos Ferreira drew 0-0 in Segunda Liga on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras.