Pacos Ferreira 0–0 Torreense: Result & Stats

Pacos Ferreira

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torreense

2/15/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 22Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Pacos Ferreira39%

×Draw28%

Torreense33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pacos FerreiraExpected goals in this matchTorreense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.12

Pacos Ferreira

1.25

Torreense

1.12

Pacos Ferreira creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.35

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.35

Torreense

1.15

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.09

Torreense

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

Torreense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw

67%

Pacos Ferreira or Torreense

72%

Draw or Torreense

61%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

17%

Torreense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

71%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

36%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

13%

Torreense 1+ goals

67%

Torreense 2+ goals

31%

Torreense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

54%

Torreense (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.35 + Torreense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Torreense attack 1.15 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more

39%

level

28%

Torreense scores more

33%

Pacos Ferreira at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff