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Torreense vs AVS — Segunda Liga 2018

Torreense
Torreense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AVS
AVS
2/3/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 20Campo Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torreense32%
×Draw26%
AVS42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreense
1.23
AVS
1.43

AVS creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Torreense
1.40
AVS
1.76

allows per match

Torreense
1.09
AVS
1.06

finishing

Torreense+0.00on par
AVS+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense ↓

AVS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torreense or draw
58%
Torreense or AVS
74%
Draw or AVS
68%

Winning margin

Torreense wins by 2+
14%
AVS wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Torreense 1+ goals
71%
Torreense 2+ goals
35%
Torreense 3+ goals
13%
AVS 1+ goals
76%
AVS 2+ goals
42%
AVS 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Torreense (draw refunded)
44%
AVS (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

AVS away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense attack 1.40 + AVS defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

AVS attack 1.76 + Torreense defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torreense scores more
32%
level
26%
AVS scores more
42%

AVS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torreense 2 – 1 AVS

Torreense beat AVS 2-1 in Segunda Liga on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras.