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AVS vs Torreense — Segunda Liga 2018

AVS
AVS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torreense
Torreense
8/27/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 3Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AVS39%
×Draw29%
Torreense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AVS
1.17
Torreense
1.04

AVS creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

AVS
1.18
Torreense
1.15

allows per match

AVS
0.94
Torreense
1.16

finishing

AVS+0.00on par
Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AVS ↓

Torreense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AVS or draw
68%
AVS or Torreense
71%
Draw or Torreense
61%

Winning margin

AVS wins by 2+
16%
Torreense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AVS 1+ goals
69%
AVS 2+ goals
33%
AVS 3+ goals
11%
Torreense 1+ goals
65%
Torreense 2+ goals
28%
Torreense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AVS (draw refunded)
55%
Torreense (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AVS at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AVS attack 1.18 + Torreense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Torreense attack 1.15 + AVS defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AVS scores more
39%
level
29%
Torreense scores more
32%

AVS at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AVS 0 – 0 Torreense

AVS and Torreense drew 0-0 in Segunda Liga on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Vila das Aves.