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Torre del Mar vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
10/19/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Torre del Mar53%
×Draw28%
Mancha Real20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torre del Mar
1.40
Mancha Real
0.74

Torre del Mar creates 89% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 79 away

creates per match

Torre del Mar
1.65
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Torre del Mar
0.76
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw
80%
Torre del Mar or Mancha Real
72%
Draw or Mancha Real
47%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+
26%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals
75%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
41%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
17%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
52%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
17%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
73%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torre del Mar scores more
53%
level
28%
Mancha Real scores more
20%

Torre del Mar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torre del Mar 1 – 0 Mancha Real

Torre del Mar beat Mancha Real 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.