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Mancha Real vs Torre del Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
2/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 20Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mancha Real43%
×Draw27%
Torre del Mar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
1.33
Torre del Mar
1.06

Mancha Real creates 25% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 83 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Torre del Mar
1.17

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Torre del Mar
1.16

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Torre del Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
70%
Mancha Real or Torre del Mar
73%
Draw or Torre del Mar
57%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
20%
Torre del Mar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
74%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
38%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
15%
Torre del Mar 1+ goals
65%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
29%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
59%
Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Torre del Mar away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Torre del Mar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Torre del Mar attack 1.17 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mancha Real scores more
43%
level
27%
Torre del Mar scores more
30%

Mancha Real at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mancha Real vs Torre del Mar

Mancha Real beat Torre del Mar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.