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Torre del Mar vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malaga City
Malaga City
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Torre del Mar63%
×Draw22%
Malaga City14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torre del Mar
1.80
Malaga City
0.72

Torre del Mar creates 150% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 49 away

creates per match

Torre del Mar
1.65
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Torre del Mar
0.76
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw
86%
Torre del Mar or Malaga City
78%
Draw or Malaga City
37%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+
37%
Malaga City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals
83%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
54%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
27%
Malaga City 1+ goals
51%
Malaga City 2+ goals
16%
Malaga City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
81%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.80

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Torre del Mar scores more
63%
level
22%
Malaga City scores more
14%

Torre del Mar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torre del Mar vs Malaga City

Torre del Mar beat Malaga City 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.