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Malaga City vs Torre del Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Malaga City
Malaga City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
12/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio Deportivo E.López Cuenca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Malaga City32%
×Draw28%
Torre del Mar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga City
1.06
Torre del Mar
1.22

Torre del Mar creates 15% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 83 away

creates per match

Malaga City
0.96
Torre del Mar
1.17

allows per match

Malaga City
1.27
Torre del Mar
1.16

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par
Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Torre del Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw
60%
Malaga City or Torre del Mar
72%
Draw or Torre del Mar
68%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+
12%
Torre del Mar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals
65%
Malaga City 2+ goals
29%
Malaga City 3+ goals
9%
Torre del Mar 1+ goals
70%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
34%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)
44%
Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Torre del Mar away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Torre del Mar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Torre del Mar attack 1.17 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Malaga City scores more
32%
level
28%
Torre del Mar scores more
40%

Torre del Mar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaga City vs Torre del Mar

Torre del Mar beat Malaga City 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo E.López Cuenca in Nerja.