Torre del Mar 3–0 Atlético Melilla: Result & Stats

Torre del Mar

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Atlético Melilla

12/6/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torre del Mar83%

×Draw11%

Atlético Melilla5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torre del MarExpected goals in this matchAtlético Melilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.61

Torre del Mar

2.92

Atlético Melilla

0.61

Torre del Mar creates 379% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

1.65

creates per match

0.47

0.76

allows per match

4.18

creates per match

Torre del Mar

1.65

Atlético Melilla

0.47

allows per match

Torre del Mar

0.76

Atlético Melilla

4.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Atlético Melilla →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw

95%

Torre del Mar or Atlético Melilla

89%

Draw or Atlético Melilla

17%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+

64%

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals

94%

Torre del Mar 2+ goals

78%

Torre del Mar 3+ goals

55%

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals

46%

Atlético Melilla 2+ goals

13%

Atlético Melilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)

94%

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.92

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Torre del Mar scores more

83%

level

11%

Atlético Melilla scores more

Torre del Mar at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torre del Mar vs Atlético Melilla

Torre del Mar beat Atlético Melilla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.

Torre del Mar vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torre del Mar vs Atlético Melilla