Atlético Melilla 2–4 Torre del Mar: Result & Stats

Atlético Melilla

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Torre del Mar

4/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Melilla23%

×Draw27%

Torre del Mar50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MelillaExpected goals in this matchTorre del Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.44

Atlético Melilla

0.88

Torre del Mar

1.44

Torre del Mar creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

0.59

creates per match

1.17

1.71

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Atlético Melilla

0.59

Torre del Mar

1.17

allows per match

Atlético Melilla

1.71

Torre del Mar

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Melilla ↓

Torre del Mar →

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Melilla or draw

50%

Atlético Melilla or Torre del Mar

73%

Draw or Torre del Mar

77%

Winning margin

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+

Torre del Mar wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals

59%

Atlético Melilla 2+ goals

22%

Atlético Melilla 3+ goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals

76%

Torre del Mar 2+ goals

42%

Torre del Mar 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)

31%

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Melilla at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Torre del Mar away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Melilla attack 0.59 + Torre del Mar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Torre del Mar attack 1.17 + Atlético Melilla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlético Melilla scores more

23%

level

27%

Torre del Mar scores more

50%

Torre del Mar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Melilla vs Torre del Mar

Torre del Mar beat Atlético Melilla 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.

Atlético Melilla vs Torre del Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Melilla vs Torre del Mar