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Torre del Mar vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Almería II
Almería II
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 17Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Torre del Mar45%
×Draw26%
Almería II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torre del Mar
1.47
Almería II
1.14

Torre del Mar creates 29% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 75 away

creates per match

Torre del Mar
1.65
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

Torre del Mar
0.76
Almería II
1.29

finishing

Torre del Mar+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torre del Mar ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torre del Mar or draw
71%
Torre del Mar or Almería II
74%
Draw or Almería II
55%

Winning margin

Torre del Mar wins by 2+
22%
Almería II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torre del Mar 1+ goals
77%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
43%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
18%
Almería II 1+ goals
68%
Almería II 2+ goals
32%
Almería II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
60%
Almería II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torre del Mar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torre del Mar attack 1.65 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.47

Almería II attack 1.51 + Torre del Mar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torre del Mar scores more
45%
level
26%
Almería II scores more
29%

Torre del Mar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torre del Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torre del Mar 0 – 3 Almería II

Almería II beat Torre del Mar 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.