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Almería II vs Torre del Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torre del Mar
Torre del Mar
5/12/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 34Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Almería II53%
×Draw25%
Torre del Mar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
1.63
Torre del Mar
0.94

Almería II creates 73% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 83 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Torre del Mar
1.17

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Torre del Mar
1.16

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Torre del Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Torre del Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
78%
Almería II or Torre del Mar
75%
Draw or Torre del Mar
47%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
29%
Torre del Mar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
80%
Almería II 2+ goals
48%
Almería II 3+ goals
22%
Torre del Mar 1+ goals
61%
Torre del Mar 2+ goals
24%
Torre del Mar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
71%
Torre del Mar (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Torre del Mar away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Torre del Mar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.63

Torre del Mar attack 1.17 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Almería II scores more
53%
level
25%
Torre del Mar scores more
22%

Almería II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Almería II 1 – 0 Torre del Mar

Almería II beat Torre del Mar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo in Almería.