Torquay 1–0 Bath City: Result & Stats | League #51

Torquay

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bath City

C. Cooke 67'

3/22/2025

League #51 · South - 40Plainmoor Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Torquay67%

×Draw20%

Bath City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorquayExpected goals in this matchBath City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.82

Torquay

2.09

Bath City

0.82

Torquay creates 155% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

2.19

creates per match

0.33

1.31

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Torquay

2.19

Bath City

0.33

allows per match

Torquay

1.31

Bath City

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torquay+0.00on par

Bath City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torquay ↓

Bath City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Torquay or draw

86%

Torquay or Bath City

80%

Draw or Bath City

33%

Winning margin

Torquay wins by 2+

42%

Bath City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Torquay 1+ goals

88%

Torquay 2+ goals

62%

Torquay 3+ goals

34%

Bath City 1+ goals

56%

Bath City 2+ goals

20%

Bath City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Torquay (draw refunded)

83%

Bath City (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torquay at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Bath City away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torquay attack 2.19 + Bath City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Bath City attack 0.33 + Torquay defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Torquay scores more

67%

level

20%

Bath City scores more

14%

Torquay at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Torquay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

C. Cooke← W. Jenkins-Davies

62'

J. Batten← J. Alves

67'

C. Cooke

83'

J. Nwabueze← E. Clark

88'

E. Frear← D. Greenslade

90'

E. Palmer← M. Jay

Torquay

Bath

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Wotton

52'▲C. Cooke←▼W. Jenkins-Davies

90'▲E. Palmer←▼M. Jay

Torquay substitutes

CookePalmerThomasHasaniMussa

Manager: D. Way

62'▲J. Batten←▼J. Alves

83'▲J. Nwabueze←▼E. Clark

88'▲E. Frear←▼D. Greenslade

Bath City substitutes

BattenNwabuezeFrearSweetenHorsell