Bath City 1–0 Torquay: Result & Stats | League #51

Bath City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Torquay

E. Frear 10'

4/13/2024

League #51 · South - 45Twerton Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bath City36%

×Draw27%

Torquay37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bath CityExpected goals in this matchTorquay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.24

Bath City

1.21

Torquay

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

1.17

creates per match

1.31

1.17

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Bath City

1.17

Torquay

1.31

allows per match

Bath City

1.17

Torquay

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bath City+0.00on par

Torquay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bath City ↓

Torquay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bath City or draw

63%

Bath City or Torquay

73%

Draw or Torquay

64%

Winning margin

Bath City wins by 2+

15%

Torquay wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bath City 1+ goals

70%

Bath City 2+ goals

34%

Bath City 3+ goals

12%

Torquay 1+ goals

71%

Torquay 2+ goals

35%

Torquay 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bath City (draw refunded)

49%

Torquay (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bath City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Torquay away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bath City attack 1.17 + Torquay defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Torquay attack 1.31 + Bath City defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bath City scores more

36%

level

27%

Torquay scores more

37%

Torquay at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torquay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

E. Frear

61'

E. Clark← E. Yeboah

82'

A. Booth← B. McGavin

Bath

Torquay

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Gill

61'▲E. Clark←▼E. Yeboah

Bath City substitutes

ClarkIdehenVassellAlabiRaynes

Manager: A. Downes

82'▲A. Booth←▼B. McGavin

Torquay substitutes

BoothThomasLovettWellington