Torpedo Zhodino 2–1 Smolevichi-Sti: Result & Stats

Torpedo Zhodino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Smolevichi-Sti

E. Zhevnerov 67' (OG)

Gabriel Ramos 34'

A. Makarov 15'

5/29/2020

Premier League · Round 11Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Torpedo Zhodino57%

×Draw25%

Smolevichi-Sti18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo ZhodinoExpected goals in this matchSmolevichi-Sti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.78

Torpedo Zhodino

1.62

Smolevichi-Sti

0.78

Torpedo Zhodino creates 108% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 28 away

1.49

creates per match

0.61

0.96

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Torpedo Zhodino

1.49

Smolevichi-Sti

0.61

allows per match

Torpedo Zhodino

0.96

Smolevichi-Sti

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Smolevichi-Sti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Zhodino ↓

Smolevichi-Sti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Zhodino or draw

82%

Torpedo Zhodino or Smolevichi-Sti

75%

Draw or Smolevichi-Sti

43%

Winning margin

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+

31%

Smolevichi-Sti wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals

80%

Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals

48%

Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals

22%

Smolevichi-Sti 1+ goals

54%

Smolevichi-Sti 2+ goals

18%

Smolevichi-Sti 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)

76%

Smolevichi-Sti (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.96 · 119 matches

Smolevichi-Sti away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.49 + Smolevichi-Sti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.62

Smolevichi-Sti attack 0.61 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Torpedo Zhodino scores more

57%

level

25%

Smolevichi-Sti scores more

18%

Torpedo Zhodino at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Makarov

25'

Vladislav Mukhamedov

34'

Gabriel Ramos

62'

D. Antilevskiy← V. Gorbachik

67'

N. Nikolaevich← K. Premudrov

67'

E. ZhevnerovOwn goal

68'

A. Turik← A. Vakulich

71'

A. Dzhigero← V. Mukhamedov

75'

D. Levitskiy← Lipe Veloso

83'

Artem Gomelko

83'

D. Shchegrikovich← K. Kotov

85'

Aleksey Turik

89'

Eduard Zhevnerov

90'

Mutalip Alibekov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

TorpedoSmolevichi-Sti

Overview

48%Possession52%

5Total Shots4

11Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

5Total Shots4

3On Target2

2Off Target2

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0