Torpedo Zhodino vs Smolevichi-Sti — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 28+ matches
Torpedo Zhodino57%
Smolevichi-Sti18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Torpedo Zhodino creates 108% more chances
Season form · 119 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Torpedo Zhodino ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.96 · 119 matches
Smolevichi-Sti away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.49 + Smolevichi-Sti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.62
Smolevichi-Sti attack 0.61 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.78
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Torpedo Zhodino at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Bate Borisov
Shakhter Soligorsk
Dinamo Minsk
FC VitebskTorpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Slutsk
Gorodeya
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Minsk
FC Gomel
FC Luch Minsk
Torpedo MinskSmolevichi-Sti
FC Dnepr MogilevIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Torpedo Zhodino host Smolevichi-Sti on Friday, 6 April 2018 at 16:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: Torpedo Zhodino 1–0 Smolevichi-Sti
Torpedo Zhodino beat Smolevichi-Sti 1-0 in Premier League on April 6, 2018.
Goals: P. Dolgov (74').
The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda (Zhodzina (Zhodino)).