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Torpedo Zhodino vs ML Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
3/21/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Torpedo Zhodino29%
×Draw26%
ML Vitebsk44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Zhodino
1.11
ML Vitebsk
1.43

ML Vitebsk creates 29% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 24 away

creates per match

Torpedo Zhodino
1.48
ML Vitebsk
1.92

allows per match

Torpedo Zhodino
0.94
ML Vitebsk
0.75

finishing

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Zhodino ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torpedo Zhodino or draw
56%
Torpedo Zhodino or ML Vitebsk
74%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
71%

Winning margin

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
11%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
67%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
30%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
10%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
76%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
42%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
40%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 128 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.48 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.11

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torpedo Zhodino scores more
29%
level
26%
ML Vitebsk scores more
44%

ML Vitebsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Torpedo Zhodino 0–1 ML Vitebsk

ML Vitebsk beat Torpedo Zhodino 1-0 in Premier League on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Zhodino.