Torpedo Zhodino 0–0 ML Vitebsk: Result & Stats

Torpedo Zhodino

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ML Vitebsk

4/16/2025

Coppa · Semi-finalsStadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Torpedo Zhodino16%

×Draw20%

ML Vitebsk64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo ZhodinoExpected goals in this matchML Vitebsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.18

Torpedo Zhodino

1.00

ML Vitebsk

2.18

ML Vitebsk creates 118% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

4.00

0.36

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Torpedo Zhodino

1.00

ML Vitebsk

4.00

allows per match

Torpedo Zhodino

0.36

ML Vitebsk

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Zhodino ↓

ML Vitebsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Torpedo Zhodino or draw

36%

Torpedo Zhodino or ML Vitebsk

80%

Draw or ML Vitebsk

84%

Winning margin

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+

6%

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals

63%

Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals

26%

Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals

8%

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

89%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

64%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)

20%

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.00 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

ML Vitebsk attack 4.00 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Torpedo Zhodino scores more

16%

level

20%

ML Vitebsk scores more

64%

ML Vitebsk at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff