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Torpedo Zhodino vs FC Gomel — Premier League 2018

Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Gomel
FC Gomel
10/29/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Torpedo Zhodino43%
×Draw27%
FC Gomel29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Zhodino
1.35
FC Gomel
1.06

Torpedo Zhodino creates 27% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 111 away

creates per match

Torpedo Zhodino
1.48
FC Gomel
1.18

allows per match

Torpedo Zhodino
0.94
FC Gomel
1.23

finishing

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par
FC Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Zhodino ↓

FC Gomel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torpedo Zhodino or draw
71%
Torpedo Zhodino or FC Gomel
73%
Draw or FC Gomel
57%

Winning margin

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
20%
FC Gomel wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
74%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
39%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
15%
FC Gomel 1+ goals
65%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
29%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
60%
FC Gomel (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 128 matches

FC Gomel away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.48 + FC Gomel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC Gomel attack 1.18 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torpedo Zhodino scores more
43%
level
27%
FC Gomel scores more
29%

Torpedo Zhodino at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Torpedo Zhodino 0–1 FC Gomel

FC Gomel beat Torpedo Zhodino 1-0 in Premier League on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Zhodino.