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FC Gomel vs Torpedo Zhodino — Premier League 2018

FC Gomel
FC Gomel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodino
3/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Lokomotiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

FC Gomel36%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Zhodino37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gomel
1.21
Torpedo Zhodino
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 124 away

creates per match

FC Gomel
1.39
Torpedo Zhodino
1.26

allows per match

FC Gomel
1.19
Torpedo Zhodino
1.03

finishing

FC Gomel+0.00on par
Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gomel ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Gomel or draw
63%
FC Gomel or Torpedo Zhodino
73%
Draw or Torpedo Zhodino
64%

Winning margin

FC Gomel wins by 2+
15%
Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Gomel 1+ goals
70%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
34%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
12%
Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
35%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Gomel (draw refunded)
49%
Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gomel at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gomel attack 1.39 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.26 + FC Gomel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Gomel scores more
36%
level
27%
Torpedo Zhodino scores more
37%

Torpedo Zhodino at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Gomel 1–1 Torpedo Zhodino

FC Gomel and Torpedo Zhodino drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Lokomotiv Stadium in Gomel.