Torpedo Zhodino 4–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

Torpedo Zhodino

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

8/12/2022

Premier League · Round 17Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Torpedo Zhodino45%

×Draw26%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo ZhodinoExpected goals in this matchFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.14

Torpedo Zhodino

1.50

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.14

Torpedo Zhodino creates 32% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 74 away

1.48

creates per match

1.34

0.94

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Torpedo Zhodino

1.48

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.34

allows per match

Torpedo Zhodino

0.94

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Zhodino ↓

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Zhodino or draw

71%

Torpedo Zhodino or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

74%

Draw or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

55%

Winning margin

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+

23%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals

78%

Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals

44%

Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals

19%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals

68%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals

32%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)

61%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 128 matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.48 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.34 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torpedo Zhodino scores more

45%

level

26%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more

29%

Torpedo Zhodino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff