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FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino — Premier League 2018

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodino
4/3/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Stadyen RTsOP-BGU

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk33%
×Draw26%
Torpedo Zhodino41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.20
Torpedo Zhodino
1.38

Torpedo Zhodino creates 15% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 124 away

creates per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.37
Torpedo Zhodino
1.26

allows per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.49
Torpedo Zhodino
1.03

finishing

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par
Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or draw
59%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or Torpedo Zhodino
74%
Draw or Torpedo Zhodino
67%

Winning margin

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+
14%
Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals
70%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals
34%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals
12%
Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
75%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
40%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)
44%
Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 75 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.37 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.26 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more
33%
level
26%
Torpedo Zhodino scores more
41%

Torpedo Zhodino at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk beat Torpedo Zhodino 3-1 in Premier League on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen RTsOP-BGU in Minsk.