Torpedo Zhodino 2–1 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Torpedo Zhodino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arsenal

4/12/2025

Premier League · Round 4Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Torpedo Zhodino49%

×Draw27%

Arsenal24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo ZhodinoExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.90

Torpedo Zhodino

1.43

Arsenal

0.90

Torpedo Zhodino creates 59% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 54 away

1.48

creates per match

0.85

0.94

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Torpedo Zhodino

1.48

Arsenal

0.85

allows per match

Torpedo Zhodino

0.94

Arsenal

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Zhodino ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Zhodino or draw

76%

Torpedo Zhodino or Arsenal

73%

Draw or Arsenal

51%

Winning margin

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+

24%

Arsenal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals

76%

Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals

42%

Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals

17%

Arsenal 1+ goals

59%

Arsenal 2+ goals

23%

Arsenal 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)

68%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 128 matches

Arsenal away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.48 + Arsenal defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Arsenal attack 0.85 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torpedo Zhodino scores more

49%

level

27%

Arsenal scores more

24%

Torpedo Zhodino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff