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Arsenal vs Torpedo Zhodino — Premier League 2018

Arsenal
Arsenal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodino
3/17/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stadyen RTsOP-BGU

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Arsenal29%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Zhodino42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal
0.98
Torpedo Zhodino
1.25

Torpedo Zhodino creates 28% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 124 away

creates per match

Arsenal
0.94
Torpedo Zhodino
1.26

allows per match

Arsenal
1.23
Torpedo Zhodino
1.03

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par
Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw
58%
Arsenal or Torpedo Zhodino
71%
Draw or Torpedo Zhodino
71%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+
11%
Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals
62%
Arsenal 2+ goals
26%
Arsenal 3+ goals
8%
Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
36%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)
41%
Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 0.94 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.26 + Arsenal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arsenal scores more
29%
level
29%
Torpedo Zhodino scores more
42%

Torpedo Zhodino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal vs Torpedo Zhodino

Torpedo Zhodino beat Arsenal 1-0 in Premier League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen RTsOP-BGU in Minsk.