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Torpedo Yerevan vs Shirak II — First League 2019

Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
CANC
06:00
Shirak II
Shirak II
7/13/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Yerevan43%
×Draw20%
Shirak II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Yerevan
2.29
Shirak II
2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 84 away

creates per match

Torpedo Yerevan
2.14
Shirak II
1.17

allows per match

Torpedo Yerevan
3.07
Shirak II
2.43

finishing

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par
Shirak II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Yerevan ↓

Shirak II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Torpedo Yerevan or draw
63%
Torpedo Yerevan or Shirak II
80%
Draw or Shirak II
57%

Winning margin

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
25%
Shirak II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
90%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
66%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
40%
Shirak II 1+ goals
88%
Shirak II 2+ goals
62%
Shirak II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
54%
Shirak II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Yerevan at home — creates 2.14, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

Shirak II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Yerevan attack 2.14 + Shirak II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.29

Shirak II attack 1.17 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torpedo Yerevan scores more
43%
level
20%
Shirak II scores more
37%

Torpedo Yerevan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torpedo Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torpedo Yerevan vs Shirak II — Match Preview

Torpedo Yerevan face Shirak II on July 13, 2020 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Torpedo Yerevan host Shirak II at Kotaik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.