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Shirak II vs Torpedo Yerevan — First League 2019

Shirak II
Shirak II
FT
2 – 1
Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
11/28/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shirak II56%
×Draw19%
Torpedo Yerevan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak II
2.42
Torpedo Yerevan
1.58

Shirak II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 14 away

creates per match

Shirak II
1.35
Torpedo Yerevan
1.29

allows per match

Shirak II
1.88
Torpedo Yerevan
3.50

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par
Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw
75%
Shirak II or Torpedo Yerevan
81%
Draw or Torpedo Yerevan
44%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+
35%
Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals
91%
Shirak II 2+ goals
69%
Shirak II 3+ goals
43%
Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
79%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
47%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)
69%
Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shirak II scores more
56%
level
19%
Torpedo Yerevan scores more
25%

Shirak II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shirak II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shirak II 2–1 Torpedo Yerevan

Shirak II beat Torpedo Yerevan 2-1 in First League on November 28, 2019.

The match was played at Gyumri City Stadium in Gyumri.