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Torpedo Yerevan vs Lokomotiv — First League 2019

Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
FT
2 – 3
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
3/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Torpedo Yerevan19%
×Draw16%
Lokomotiv65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Yerevan
1.65
Lokomotiv
3.04

Lokomotiv creates 84% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Torpedo Yerevan
2.14
Lokomotiv
3.00

allows per match

Torpedo Yerevan
3.07
Lokomotiv
1.15

finishing

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Yerevan ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Torpedo Yerevan or draw
35%
Torpedo Yerevan or Lokomotiv
84%
Draw or Lokomotiv
81%

Winning margin

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
8%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
81%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
49%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
23%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
95%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
80%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
23%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Yerevan at home — creates 2.14, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Yerevan attack 2.14 + Lokomotiv defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lokomotiv attack 3.00 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Torpedo Yerevan scores more
19%
level
16%
Lokomotiv scores more
65%

Lokomotiv at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Torpedo Yerevan 2–3 Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat Torpedo Yerevan 3-2 in First League on March 4, 2020.

The match was played at Kotaik Stadium in Abovian.