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Lokomotiv vs Torpedo Yerevan — First League 2019

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
4 – 1
Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
8/17/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 3RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lokomotiv79%
×Draw13%
Torpedo Yerevan8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
3.07
Torpedo Yerevan
0.93

Lokomotiv creates 230% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.64
Torpedo Yerevan
1.29

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.57
Torpedo Yerevan
3.50

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
92%
Lokomotiv or Torpedo Yerevan
87%
Draw or Torpedo Yerevan
21%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
60%
Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
95%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
80%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
58%
Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
61%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
24%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
90%
Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.64 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.07

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Lokomotiv defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
79%
level
13%
Torpedo Yerevan scores more
8%

Lokomotiv at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lokomotiv 4–1 Torpedo Yerevan

Lokomotiv beat Torpedo Yerevan 4-1 in First League on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at RCCSD Stadium in Yerevan.