Torpedo Yerevan 0–6 Lernayin Artsakh

Torpedo Yerevan

FT

0 – 6

Lernayin Artsakh

12/8/2019

First League · Round 18Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Yerevan31%

×Draw20%

Lernayin Artsakh50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo YerevanExpected goals in this matchLernayin Artsakh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

2.40

Torpedo Yerevan

1.87

Lernayin Artsakh

2.40

Lernayin Artsakh creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 81 away

2.14

creates per match

1.74

3.07

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Torpedo Yerevan

2.14

Lernayin Artsakh

1.74

allows per match

Torpedo Yerevan

3.07

Lernayin Artsakh

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Yerevan ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Torpedo Yerevan or draw

50%

Torpedo Yerevan or Lernayin Artsakh

80%

Draw or Lernayin Artsakh

69%

Winning margin

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+

15%

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals

85%

Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals

56%

Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals

29%

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals

91%

Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals

69%

Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)

38%

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Yerevan at home — creates 2.14, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Yerevan attack 2.14 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.87

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Torpedo Yerevan scores more

31%

level

20%

Lernayin Artsakh scores more

50%

Lernayin Artsakh at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff