Lernayin Artsakh 0–1 Torpedo Yerevan

Lernayin Artsakh

FT

0 – 1

Torpedo Yerevan

9/10/2019

First League · Round 1Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh66%

×Draw17%

Torpedo Yerevan17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lernayin ArtsakhExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.32

Lernayin Artsakh

2.69

Torpedo Yerevan

1.32

Lernayin Artsakh creates 104% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

1.89

creates per match

1.29

1.35

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh

1.89

Torpedo Yerevan

1.29

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh

1.35

Torpedo Yerevan

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw

83%

Lernayin Artsakh or Torpedo Yerevan

83%

Draw or Torpedo Yerevan

34%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+

45%

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals

93%

Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals

74%

Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals

49%

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals

73%

Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals

38%

Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)

79%

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.69

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more

66%

level

17%

Torpedo Yerevan scores more

17%

Lernayin Artsakh at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff