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Torpedo Yerevan vs Ararat-Armenia II — First League 2019

Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
FT
0 – 4
Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
8/12/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Yerevan35%
×Draw20%
Ararat-Armenia II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.27

Ararat-Armenia II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 99 away

creates per match

Torpedo Yerevan
2.14
Ararat-Armenia II
1.48

allows per match

Torpedo Yerevan
3.07
Ararat-Armenia II
1.86

finishing

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par
Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Yerevan ↓

Ararat-Armenia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Torpedo Yerevan or draw
55%
Torpedo Yerevan or Ararat-Armenia II
80%
Draw or Ararat-Armenia II
65%

Winning margin

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
19%
Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
86%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
59%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
32%
Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
90%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
66%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
44%
Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Yerevan at home — creates 2.14, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

Ararat-Armenia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Yerevan attack 2.14 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.48 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torpedo Yerevan scores more
35%
level
20%
Ararat-Armenia II scores more
45%

Ararat-Armenia II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Torpedo Yerevan 0–4 Ararat-Armenia II

Ararat-Armenia II beat Torpedo Yerevan 4-0 in First League on August 12, 2019.

The match was played at Kotaik Stadium in Abovian.