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Ararat-Armenia II vs Torpedo Yerevan — First League 2019

Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
FT
6 – 0
Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
2/28/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ararat-Armenia II60%
×Draw18%
Torpedo Yerevan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia II
2.65
Torpedo Yerevan
1.56

Ararat-Armenia II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.80
Torpedo Yerevan
1.29

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.82
Torpedo Yerevan
3.50

finishing

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par
Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia II ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia II or draw
78%
Ararat-Armenia II or Torpedo Yerevan
82%
Draw or Torpedo Yerevan
40%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
40%
Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
93%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
74%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
48%
Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
79%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
46%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
74%
Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.82 · 98 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.80 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.65

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ararat-Armenia II scores more
60%
level
18%
Torpedo Yerevan scores more
22%

Ararat-Armenia II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ararat-Armenia II 6–0 Torpedo Yerevan

Ararat-Armenia II beat Torpedo Yerevan 6-0 in First League on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.