Torpedo Yerevan 12–0 Ani Yerevan: Result & Stats

Torpedo Yerevan

FT

12 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Ani Yerevan

6/28/2020

First League · Round 29Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Yerevan55%

×Draw18%

Ani Yerevan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo YerevanExpected goals in this matchAni Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

2.14

Torpedo Yerevan

3.04

Ani Yerevan

2.14

Torpedo Yerevan creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

1.21

3.07

allows per match

3.93

creates per match

Torpedo Yerevan

2.14

Ani Yerevan

1.21

allows per match

Torpedo Yerevan

3.07

Ani Yerevan

3.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Yerevan ↓

Ani Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Torpedo Yerevan or draw

73%

Torpedo Yerevan or Ani Yerevan

82%

Draw or Ani Yerevan

45%

Winning margin

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+

37%

Ani Yerevan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals

95%

Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals

80%

Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals

57%

Ani Yerevan 1+ goals

88%

Ani Yerevan 2+ goals

63%

Ani Yerevan 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)

67%

Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Yerevan at home — creates 2.14, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Yerevan attack 2.14 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.04

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torpedo Yerevan scores more

55%

level

18%

Ani Yerevan scores more

27%

Torpedo Yerevan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Torpedo Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff