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Ani Yerevan vs Torpedo Yerevan — First League 2019

Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
FT
1 – 2
Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
10/22/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ani Yerevan36%
×Draw19%
Torpedo Yerevan45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ani Yerevan
2.25
Torpedo Yerevan
2.54

Torpedo Yerevan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ani Yerevan
1.00
Torpedo Yerevan
1.29

allows per match

Ani Yerevan
3.79
Torpedo Yerevan
3.50

finishing

Ani Yerevan+0.00on par
Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ani Yerevan ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Ani Yerevan or draw
55%
Ani Yerevan or Torpedo Yerevan
81%
Draw or Torpedo Yerevan
64%

Winning margin

Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
20%
Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
89%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
65%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
39%
Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
92%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
72%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
44%
Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ani Yerevan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.79 · 14 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ani Yerevan attack 1.00 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ani Yerevan scores more
36%
level
19%
Torpedo Yerevan scores more
45%

Torpedo Yerevan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torpedo Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ani Yerevan vs Torpedo Yerevan

Torpedo Yerevan beat Ani Yerevan 2-1 in First League on October 22, 2019.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.