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Torpedo Yerevan vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
6/20/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Yerevan42%
×Draw20%
Alashkert II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Yerevan
2.36
Alashkert II
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 64 away

creates per match

Torpedo Yerevan
2.14
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

Torpedo Yerevan
3.07
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Yerevan ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Torpedo Yerevan or draw
62%
Torpedo Yerevan or Alashkert II
80%
Draw or Alashkert II
58%

Winning margin

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
25%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
90%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
68%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
41%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
89%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
65%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
53%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Yerevan at home — creates 2.14, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Yerevan attack 2.14 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.36

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torpedo Yerevan scores more
42%
level
20%
Alashkert II scores more
38%

Torpedo Yerevan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torpedo Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Torpedo Yerevan 1–1 Alashkert II

Torpedo Yerevan and Alashkert II drew 1-1 in First League on June 20, 2020.

The match was played at Kotaik Stadium in Abovian.