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Alashkert II vs Torpedo Yerevan — First League 2019

Alashkert II
Alashkert II
FT
5 – 1
Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
10/4/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alashkert II54%
×Draw19%
Torpedo Yerevan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert II
2.56
Torpedo Yerevan
1.81

Alashkert II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

creates per match

Alashkert II
1.63
Torpedo Yerevan
1.29

allows per match

Alashkert II
2.34
Torpedo Yerevan
3.50

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par
Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw
73%
Alashkert II or Torpedo Yerevan
81%
Draw or Torpedo Yerevan
46%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+
34%
Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals
92%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
72%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
46%
Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
84%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
54%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)
66%
Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.56

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alashkert II scores more
54%
level
19%
Torpedo Yerevan scores more
27%

Alashkert II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alashkert II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Alashkert II 5–1 Torpedo Yerevan

Alashkert II beat Torpedo Yerevan 5-1 in First League on October 4, 2019.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.